The hole in the ozone layer: A discovery in Antarctica that changed the world
To commemorate the extraordinary moment the ozone hole was discovered in Antarctica 40 years ago, British Antarctic Survey (BAS) has teamed up with the Royal Geographical Society (RGS) in London to host a special series of talks on Tuesday, 6 May 2025.
Join us for a talk by Jon Shanklin from BAS, who was one of the three scientific researchers who made the discovery and published their results in 1985. He will be joined by John Pyle from University of Cambridge, who was instrumental in the Montreal Protocol, and Lucy Carpenter from University of York who studies ozone levels today. Together these ozone experts will tell the story of this major environmental turning point for life on Earth.
This event will take place in person at The Royal Geographical Society. It will also be live streamed if you would like to join online. For full booking instructions, please visit the RGS website here: www.rgs.org/ozone
There will be a chance to ask questions after the talks.
The event is free to attend.
How the discovery changed the world
The discovery of the ozone hole was nothing short of a global shock. The research team’s detection of a dramatic thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica raised immediate concerns about the potential harm to human health and ecosystems.
This revelation directly led to the Montreal Protocol within just two years of the discovery, a historic agreement that froze the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) at 1986 levels, with a goal to phase them out entirely. The protocol’s success cannot be overstated: it is widely regarded as one of the most successful international environmental treaties ever enacted.
A 2015 analysis by Deloitte revealed that if Farman, Gardiner, and Shanklin had not made their discovery when they did, it could have delayed the Montreal Protocol by five to ten years, potentially worsening the environmental crisis.
Without the protocol, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that by 2030, the number of global skin cancer cases could have been 14% higher, resulting in the loss of nearly 300 lives annually in the UK alone. The agreement’s effects on public health have been profound, saving countless lives by preventing harmful UV radiation from reaching the Earth’s surface.
In addition to its health benefits, the Montreal Protocol has had a lasting impact on climate change. A recent study funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) found that, had CFCs not been banned in the late 1980s, their continued use could have caused global air temperatures to rise by an additional 2.5°C by the end of the century. This additional warming would have exacerbated the already growing climate crisis. CFCs are potent greenhouse gases, contributing to global warming, and they also disrupt the ability of plants to grow, further exacerbating the effects of climate change.
The Montreal Protocol continues to evolve in response to emerging scientific evidence. In 2016, research funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) led to the inclusion of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) – potent greenhouse gases used as replacements for CFCs – on the list of controlled substances. An agreement was reached to phase down the production and use of HFCs over the next 30 years.
The success of the Montreal Protocol has led to the slow healing of the ozone layer, with the Antarctic ozone hole showing signs of recovery. However, because CFCs have atmospheric lifetimes of 50 years or more, it will take decades for the ozone layer to fully recover, with some estimates suggesting it may not be until after 2070 before the atmosphere is restored to its pre-1980s state, assuming no further emissions.
British Antarctic Survey
